Less growth, but more students?

Union County Public Schools will have more than 750 new students with seven schools operating over capacity next year, according to the latest ­enrollment forecast county board of education members saw Feb. 1. In 2010-11, enrollment is expected to climb 1.93 percent to 39,539 students, up from 38,539 this year.

If that number’s accurate, the schools that would be over ­capacity next year are New Salem, Unionville, New Town and Rocky River elementary schools, and Porter Ridge middle and high schools. Some of the data used by Rock Hill, S. C.-based ­McKibben Demographic Research, which forecasts each year’s fall enrollment, is based on new housing, which the county’s current water and sewer shortages may stall.

“The district will experience continued increase in housing stock, with an average of 600 new units being built each year through 2012,” Dr. Jerome McKibben said in the report, ­explaining he predicted the number of students based on submitted building permits. “New housing construction will continue after that point, but housing starts will only average 300 per year.”

However, the county currently has a water and sewer allocation plan that puts residential housing No. 2 on the list behind more than 125 commercial – tax-revenue producing – buildings waiting for sewer and water ­capacity. But McKibben said regardless, there still will be long- and short-term growth that will impact the district since some houses are still under construction­, families with children move in and out, and current preschoolers enter the system.

“There is a common misconception that any changes in the economy, housing market or the local transportation systems will have an immediate impact on the dynamics of an area’s population,” McKibben said. “The full impact of the growth in new-home construction is not seen immediately, as it takes three to seven years for all of the children to age into the schools.”

The forecast shows the impact of that slowed growth over time, with the number of new students declining each year until some start to leave the system by 2017. “As in-migration of young families continues to slow, total enrollment will grow at an increasing slower rate, then decline,” ­McKibben said. “After 2010, the district’s ­elementary enrollment will begin a slow decline.”

Union County Finance Director Kai Nelson questioned McKibben’s 50 percent increase in students, in light of the county’s water- and sewer-permit moratorium. Nelson said he expects the number of new students next year to be lower than the 500 who enrolled in 2009 because UCPS removed five planned schools from next year’s capital improvement plan in budget cuts.

If the district feels it can put off new-facility construction, ­Nelson ­continued, how does that jibe with McKibben’s growing numbers? According to the report, total enrollment will increase by 1,941 students between 2010 and 2015, despite no new schools being built in that time frame.

“Generally, I agree with his long-range conclusions (for) limited growth and decline, although we get there ­differently,” Nelson said. “(But) the trend is pretty convincing, no new schools,” Nelson said.

Overall, UCPS slashed $173 ­million in January from its $283 million capital improvement projects list, opting to work with a $110 million, six-year, comprehensive facilities plan.

High school and middle school “D” in Indian Trail, which would relieve overcrowding in the Porter Ridge cluster, wouldn’t start construction until August 2015.